Keywords

Mortality forecasting, Mortality index, Identifiability issues, Time-series modeling, Public health planning, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).

Abstract

Mortality forecasting is critical for public-health planning, pension provisioning and actuarial risk management. The widely-used Lee–Carter model expresses log-age-specific mortality rates as the sum of an age profile plus a time-varying mortality index multiplied by age-sensitivity coefficients. Estimating its parameters—age effect a_x, sensitivity b_xand time index k_t is a key step before forecasting. This paper presents a comprehensive review of parameter estimation methods for the Lee–Carter model, outlines a detailed step-by-step methodology (including singular value decomposition and time-series modelling of k_t), discusses practical issues (identifiability, smoothing, time-series model selection) and offers recommendations for future research in contexts of limited data or changing mortality regimes.

Cite this Article

Chinton Emmanuel, 2025. "Estimation of Parameters of the Lee–Carter Model for Mortality Prediction", International Journal of Economics, Business, Management Research Intelligence (IJEBMRI) 1(2): 22-26.