Keywords

Ghana mortality rate, Lee-Carter, demographic data, economic planning

Abstract

This study forecasts Ghana’s mortality rate using annual data from 1950 to 2025 and projects future mortality trends up to 2080 through the Lee–Carter mortality model. The analysis employs historical mortality rate data (deaths per 1,000 population) to estimate the model’s parameters via singular value decomposition and time-series regression. The results reveal a consistent decline in Ghana’s mortality rate from the mid-20th century, reflecting improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and socio-economic development. The projected trajectory suggests a gradual stabilization of mortality rates between 5.0 and 6.0 deaths per 1,000 population by 2080. The findings emphasize the need for continued investment in health systems and demographic data collection to ensure reliable mortality forecasting for social and economic planning.

Cite this Article

Chinton Emmanuel, 2025. "Forecasting Ghana’s Mortality Rate (1950–2080) Using the Lee–Carter Model", International Journal of Economics, Business, Management Research Intelligence (IJEBMRI) 1(2): 27-31.